Wednesday, February 8, 2012 - 4:19 PM
Hey, remember how the new Al Qaeda was going to be more networked and more capable of inspiring home-grown terrorism? Remember how today's threat enviroment was supposed to be worse than the Cold War?
Bear these points in mind when considering two news items that crossed my screen today. In the first, courtesy of Micah Zenko, a Pentagon official suggests that maybe, just maybe, the U.S. overrestimated Al Qaeda's capabilities:
With the benefit of more than a decade of hindsight, America may have misjudged the true threat posed by al-Qaeda in the immediate aftermath of the 2001 terrorist attacks, a top Pentagon official said Tuesday.
“Al-Qaida wasn’t as good as we thought they were on 9/11,” said Michael A. Sheehan, the assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low intensity conflict.
“Quite frankly, we, the American people, were asleep at the switch, the U.S. government, prior to 9/11. So an organization that wasn’t that good looked really great on 9/11,” Sheehan told a room full of special operators in Washington who were attending an annual Special Operations, Low Intensity Conflict Planning Conference.
“Everyone looked to the skies every day after 9/11 and said, ‘When is the next attack?’ And it didn’t come, partly because al-Qaida wasn’t that capable. They didn’t have other units here in the U.S. … Really, they didn’t have the capability to conduct a second attack.”
The true limitations of al-Qaida are one of two key reasons that America has not suffered a major terrorist attack since 2001.
“The other reason is that we actually responded … and crushed al-Qaida immediately after 9/11, and continually for the last 10 years,” Sheehan said. “We are better than we often give ourselves credit for. We have a very polarized political system and it’s very difficult for anybody to actually give credit or receive credit for how good we are.”
Well, sure, Al Qaeda abroad has been weakened, but this homegrown thing, I mean, that's probably a really big-- hey, what is Scott Shane reporting about in the New York Times?
A feared wave of homegrown terrorism by radicalized Muslim Americans has not materialized, with plots and arrests dropping sharply over the two years since an unusual peak in 2009, according to a new study by a North Carolina research group.
The study, to be released on Wednesday, found that 20 Muslim Americans were charged in violent plots or attacks in 2011, down from 26 in 2010 and a spike of 47 in 2009.
Charles Kurzman, the author of the report for the Triangle Center on Terrorism and Homeland Security, called terrorism by Muslim Americans "a minuscule threat to public safety." Of about 14,000 murders in the United States last year, not a single one resulted from Islamic extremism, said Mr. Kurzman, a professor of sociology at the University of North Carolina (emphasis added).
Digging a wee bit into the actual report -- and read the whole thing, it ain't long -- I'll just reprint the closing two paragraphs below:
Repeated alerts by government officials may be issued as a precaution, even when the underlying threat is uncertain. Officials may be concerned about how they would look if an attack did take place and subsequent investigations showed that officials had failed to warn the public. But a byproduct of these alerts is a sense of heightened tension that is out of proportion to the actual number of terrorist attacks in the United States since 9/11.
This study’s findings challenge Americans to be vigilant against the threat of homegrown terrorism while maintaining a responsible sense of proportion. (emphasis added)
Now, I'm sure that the reason for this lull is that Al Qaeda's remaining assets in the United States are focusing their energies on getting all turkeys to become halal or something. That said, I'm going to continue to insist that the United States faces a much less threatening threat environment now than it did fifty years ago. Oh, and that I don't need to listen to Representative Peter King when he opens his mouth on national security issues.
Thanks for the Pam Geller link
It's good to be reminded from time to time of the Islamofascist plot to poison our precious bodily fluids by making us eat halal turkeys. I also recommend her blog, Atlas Shrugs, where she strengthens her points by typing them in allcaps.
How can we sort out the nuclear bullies of the middle East?
A significant but manageable security threat was portrayed as an existential one to all of Western Civilization, for political purposes.
I think they went even further off the rails on this than even they initially intended, though.
Not just Western Civilisation...
...but Eastern Civilisation too! Russia and China milked the T-word for all it was worth when they had their own problems with separatist groups. The use might have been justified in some cases, but to me it looks like "terrorist" has often been used as a blanket term to describe any and all militant activity.
first of all, the 911 attack was not to threaten USA in to defeat. It was an Afghan trap that French had informed Americans in 2001. Bush went ahead and to make the matter worse, two years later he went to Iraq. The only difference maker in the war is drone attacks by Americans. Russians had to back out of Afghan trap in 10 years whereas Americans are still going strong. The obvious difference maker is drone that has shielded Americans from excessive causalities. One can't say this about the economic side of the conflict.
It is a different matter that not many Al Qaeda attacks have materialized. A lull in terrorist attacks in 2011 doesn't mean that USA has won the war. Most of the Islamic terrorist attacks are perpetrated by people who follow the ideology of Al Qaeda than being the members of the group. What I find more bizarre is that people are giving credence to conspiracy theories and more Muslims find the American presence in A'stan as symbol of neo colonialism.
The al-Qaeda fiction was naked to see ten years ago but in a startling episode of groupthink, saying these people were a pack of nuts who could be handled by police action rather than a declaration of war was pretty much impossible. A few sensible people tried saying it. They found themselves lonely.
9/11, a demonstation of massive American incompetence, was treated instead as evidence of overpowering strength by a
The al-Qaeda fiction was naked to see ten years ago but in a startling episode of groupthink, saying these people were a pack of nuts who could be handled by police action rather than a declaration of war was pretty much impossible. A few sensible people tried saying it. They found themselves lonely.
9/11, a demonstation of massive American incompetence, was treated instead as evidence of overpowering strength by a
The al-Qaeda fiction was naked to see ten years ago but in a startling episode of groupthink, saying these people were a pack of nuts who could be handled by police action rather than a declaration of war was pretty much impossible. A few sensible people tried saying it. They found themselves lonely.
9/11, a demonstation of massive American incompetence, was treated instead as evidence of overpowering strength by a
I agree that a non-state actor like AQ is a minor threat compared to a relatively powerful, antagonistic state actor like say ...Pakistan. As the intelligent people have been saying since the beginning of this conflict: Poverty, inequality, lack of womens rights, and poor education are the true threats the globe faces...not islamic terrorists. Rather, terrorism is simply a symtom of the greater problem.
However, while we probably shouldn't have spent so much time, treasure and lives on soothing a symptom (rather than curing the disease); we certainly did feel threatened in hindsight. Ultimately, we as a country sought justice for our countrymen that were killed unjustly, and it is simply a reminder to the rest of the world that Americans have a habit of over-reacting to pain and loss. We are human afterall.
"Americans have a habit of over-reacting to pain and loss. We are human after-all."
For quite a few years after 9/11 the nation collectively shut down it's critical thinking facilities and were willing to accept whatever their leadership told them. This was even the case with the New York Times.
The actions of the U.S. leadership after 9/11 were not so innocent, though.
The fact is, that the neoconservatives, especially Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, had a very long history of lying and following a militarist ideology, such as in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Team_B where they purposely exaggerated the Soviet threat for political purposes.
9/11 was, to them, immediately seen as an opportunity to promote that ideology.
America has chosen to defile
The verses that a poet has written.
This act rouses divine wrath for the vile
Pride that ignores the source of religion.
This act attacks a soldier's memories
Of his dear, sweet wife who returns no more.
He asks his fearsome, warlike deities
To bring this land the deadly scourge of war.
The gods rage with fury at the insult
To one whose words oft show kindness and love.
Death and destruction become the result
As fire rains on this country from above.
Evil causes divine wrath, blood, and tears
In savage strife that continues for years.
September 7, 2001
On the early morning hours of September 7th, 2001, conservative christian members of the Defense Intelligence Agency tried to provoke a Green Beret, bard, mage into committing a small murder and going to prison. Instead, he went home, wrote a spell, cast a circle, lit his candles, summoned his gods of war, and cast his spell. He cast the spell on the morning and evening of September 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, and on the morning of September 11th, 2001. It was not necessary to cast the spell on the evening of September 11th because on that morning, fire rained "on this country from above."
The war has continued for over ten years, and the Green Beret, bard, and mage has progressed through grandmage to archmage. Magic is science that has not yet been explained, and science is science that has been explained. Einstein always looked for a unified field theory, but everything can be defined in terms of waves, and these waves, including brainwaves, can interact with each other. If no one ever took a step beyond where science is on a given day, man would have no light bulbs, automobiles, or airplanes.
The role and mission of the United States Army Special Forces are to recruit, organize, train, and direct the natives of a country in unconventional warfare. Magic appears to be about as unconventional as it gets.
The US has suffered a decline in its fortunes, and China is emerging as the dominant superpower. Special Forces soldiers know that wars are not fought vacuum. When one country suffers defeat, another country gains, and the winning country need not fight to win. To win a war is competence, to win a war without fighting that war is genius.
The conservative christians tried to provoke the soldier, bard, and mage over his religion. They erroneously thought that he worshipped their devil, but he has never believed in their devil, the christian god of evil.
The third line from the bottom should be "are not fought in a vacuum."
Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
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