Thursday, February 9, 2012 - 2:02 PM
The New Republic has assembled a symposium on what the United States should do about Syria. Among others, contributors will include Larry Diamond, Anne-Marie Slaughter, and... er... me:
The New Republic wouldn’t be soliciting my take if there was an easy solution to this policy conundrum. Indeed, Syria is such a tough nut to crack that I fear the best approach to the problem is to apply a Sherlock Holmes-style logic to it. When all of the impossible policy choices have been eliminated, only the improbable ones—however unpalatable they might be—are left to mull over.
Read the whole thing: I confess to not being happy with either of my suggested policies (buy off the Russians; arm the Free Syrian Army), but as I conclude, "the sad truth is that there is no good outcome, only different shades of terrible."
For some other policy suggestions, see Daniel Serwer and Caitlin Fitzgerald on the reverting-to-nonviolence option. This argument does have some support in the academic literature -- but I also think this option has been overtaken by events.
On the opposite side of the spectrum. I'd also recommend reading Dan Trombly's extended realpolitik cost-benefit analysis of myriad options and policy contingencies for Syria. His key paragraph:
The much more unpleasant strategic reality is that, whether foreign forces intervene or not, the U.S. receives little reward from hastening Assad’s downfall. An embattled Assad imposes just the same limitations on Syrian and Iranian threats to U.S. interests. Resources will have to be diverted from the proxies Iran supports through Syria to Syria itself as Iran tries to maintain its host’s viability. The loss of Assad’s regime would mean a rapid retrenchment in Iranian support, for sure, but this would likely be replaced by a proxy campaign against Syria’s new government and its foreign backers, or a redeployment of IRGC/QF assets to other theaters, probably against the U.S (if not both). Given that rapidly overthrowing Assad without major overt military action from a broad coalition of forces is a pipe dream anyway, the United States should consider contingency plans in which it works through, rather than against, the specter of protracted civil war. To be able to bleed Iran in Syria would, relative to the risks involved, be a far more significant strategic opportunity against Iranian power relative to the investment and risk than would be a major overt campaign to overthrow Assad outright. The more blood and treasure Iran loses in Syria – even if Assad stays in power longer – the weaker Iran will be.
This is cold -- but in the absence of rapid regime change, it's also spot-on. My only point of disagreement with Trombly is that he thinks supporting/arming/training the FSA is a bad idea, while I think it's a surefire way to achieve his preferred outcome. This wasn't the logic I used in my TNR essay, and it's one I'm reluctant to voice, but there it is.
What do you think?
While possible, arming rebels can easily lead to regional chaos (more than we are currently seeing that is) and shouldn't be considered lightly. After that is the moral problem. The U.S might be aiding a civil war (albeit one Russia is already aiding). This could have wide ranging consequences such as being used against the U.S. in future debates at the U.N., it could prompt Syria to seriously pursue a nuclear deterrent and could create another Lebanon where terrorism, large refugee camps and weak state capacity is the norm.
Also while it might weaken Iran's position, it's main effect would be to weaken the current Syrian government's position which is not the same thing at all.
That isn't to say that providing weapons is inherently wrong, just that it isn't a simple solution with no potential blowback.
I think I was pretty clear that I did not think this was either a simple or costless choice. I also stressed that my first choice would be to cut a deal with Russia. Arming the FSA would probably result in a greater loss of life inside Syria. It's a lousy option. I just don't see any better choices out there.
I don't know if it's what you (or most Americans for that matter) would consider a 'better' choice but the U.S could simply keep its efforts to the current level and not make too much an issue of Assad eventually crushing the opposition. It costs the U.S nothing and might prevent relations with Russia from plummeting further. Personally I don't want to, but inaction is a possibility we should at least consider along with the others.
On a related note, depending on circumstances this might be an excellent opportunity to draw Turkey closer to its older foreign policy and colder to Russia, Iran and Syria.
I think civil war is a truly bad outcome for the United States. It is unlikely to remain confined to Syria and will inflame Sunni/Shia relations throughtout the region. Iraq, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia are all vulnerable in this scenario. Ceasefire, redeployment of an enhanced observer mission and return to nonviolent action is far preferable. It is also, as you suggest, validated by experience to succeed more often and result in better outcomes than civil war or other violent approaches.
Daniel Serwer
www.peacefare.net
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Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
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